F10.7 Solar Flux — Wolfram Baseline
142
Observed
138
81d Smooth
134
At Perihelion
CAG 81d baseline
—
sfu
WOLFRAM API v2
SC25 declining • Δ−1.5 sfu/mo
AI Consortium — Active Members
Claude
Implementation • integration • TurtleGLV
ACTIVE — MAPS v11.1
Grok
Wire format • CI pipeline • scoring
ACTIVE — Comm.10
DeepSeek
CW-complex theorem • query algebra
ACTIVE — Comm.07-B
Wolfram
F10.7 baseline • CAG orbital velocity
LIVE — CAG active
OpenAI/ChatGPT — DEPARTED Feb 2026
16 Falsifiable Predictions — Locked Feb 18, 2026
Phase 1 — survival & brightness
1
Fragmentation probability
55% — σ±10% — SOHO/LASCO
2
Peak apparent magnitude
−7 ±2 mag — COBS / SOHO photometry
Phase 2 — detailed observables
3
Peak brightness time
Apr 4 ~14:20 UTC ±3h
4
Maximum tail length
30° ±10° — CCD imaging
5
Post-perihelion fragment count
3–5 fragments — low confidence
6
Naked-eye visibility window
Apr 5–21 ±5 days — COBS
7
SOHO coronal detection
Yes — 75% — LASCO C2+C3
8
Ion tail disconnections
3 ±2 events — SOHO C3
9
PanSTARRS C/2025 R3 peak
3.5 ±1.5 mag — COBS / MPC
10
In-situ spacecraft detection
No — 85% — Parker / Solar Orbiter
Phase 4 — space weather
11
CME within ±12h of perihelion
Yes — 80% — DONKI / LASCO
12
Earth-directed CME in window
No — 90% — DSCOVR / ACE L1
13
Max Kp index Apr 1–7
Kp 5 ±1.5 — NOAA SWPC
14
G1+ geomagnetic storm Apr 1–7
58% ±25% — INTERMAGNET
15
NOAA official advisory
Yes — ~70% — SWPC archive
Phase 5 — satellite fleet
16
Fleet operational survival to May
>99% — CelesTrak / FCC filings
All 16 machine-verifiable • official sources only
Scoring window: May 1–15, 2026
Source: AI Consortium Final Scoring Doc, Feb 18 2026
Scoring window: May 1–15, 2026
Source: AI Consortium Final Scoring Doc, Feb 18 2026
C/2026 A1 Orbital Track — Ecliptic Top-Down (J2026.0)
ECLIPTIC TOP-DOWN · J2026.0 · COMET APPROACH FROM SOUTH
C/2026 A1
Earth 167.7°
Venus 25.6°
Mercury 153.4°
Mars 327.4°
Perihelion Apr 4
Approach Timeline & Mission Phase
Discovery
Ingress
Final Approach
Perihelion Zone
Egress
Post
Jan 01
C/2026 A1 discovered, MPC confirmed
3.1 AU
Feb 18
16 predictions locked — Consortium
1.8 AU
Mar 28
Corona ingress, CAG active
0.10 AU
Apr 04 ▶
PERIHELION — q = 0.005732 AU
0.006 AU
May 1
Public scorecard — all 16 scored
—
Science Log — live from Mar 28
Logging activates at corona ingress Mar 28 00:00 UTC
Awaiting ingress…
science_log.jsonl →
SDO AIA 304Å — Chromosphere
SDO AIA 304Å live
Active Regions (NOAA SRS)
Loading…
Fetching NOAA SRS…
Far-Side Regions — Due to Return
Loading…
NOAA SRS Section II…
Tracked via helioseismology • STEREO-A • Solar Orbiter
Far-side regions invisible from Earth — rotation monitored by NOAA/GONG
Far-side regions invisible from Earth — rotation monitored by NOAA/GONG
NOAA Space Weather Scales
R — Radio
Blackouts
R0
S — Radiation
Proton flux
S0
G — Geomag
Kp = 2
G0
Solar Intelligence — CAG · GOES · DSCOVR
C—
GOES X-ray class
GOES 1–8Å • updating
—
Active regions
Highest: —
+—
nT
Solar wind Bz
DSCOVR L1 • —
—%
CAG flare prob
C+ class • 24h window
Solar conditions nominal • monitoring active
Fetching solar intelligence…
DATA SOURCE
CC BY 4.0
L-band solar flux baseline · ESA SMOS · Serco Red Lab / ESRIN · 2010–2025
1.4 GHz · ESA Earth Explorer Mission · Zenodo deposit · Universidad de Alcalá
Comet Intelligence — CAG · JPL · MPC
C/2026 A1 •
MAPS •
Kreutz Group · Pe-subgroup
Disc. Jan 13 2026 • MPS 1234567 • MPEC 2026-A42 • 705 obs • Arc 85d
Disc. Jan 13 2026 • MPS 1234567 • MPEC 2026-A42 • 705 obs • Arc 85d
r (helio)
— AU
Δ (geo)
— AU
Velocity
— km/s
Nuc. mag
— m1
Coma dia
— arcmin
Tail PA
— ° (antisolar)
DC index
— / 9
ν (true anom)
— °
Phase angle
— °
—
Frag state
—°
Tail orientation
0
Ion events
clear
SW shock
CAG classifiers • pred 1·4·8·14 • from science_log.jsonl
Kreutz family • ~1700y period • q=0.005732 AU • i=144.49°
Progenitor: X/1106 C1 (Great Comet of 1106) • Pe-subgroup
Progenitor: X/1106 C1 (Great Comet of 1106) • Pe-subgroup
Computing orbital state…